What is the real impact of US semiconductor export controls on China's AI development trajectory?

US semiconductor export controls have imposed significant hurdles on China's access to advanced AI chips from companies like Nvidia and AMD, creating delays in sales and requiring government approvals that stall key markets [5][6]. These restrictions, including draft rules for tighter licensing and potential suspensions, aim to curb China's AI advancements amid geopolitical tensions, but they have not fully halted progress, as evidenced by ongoing scrutiny and occasional approvals [2][11]. The controls contribute to a persistent performance gap in Chinese AI models, largely due to constraints on computing power and capital, though this gap is not enormous [10]. Despite these barriers, China has demonstrated resilience by overcoming multiple chokepoints in semiconductors and AI manufacturing, while dominating in critical minerals and leveraging open-source AI to build a competitive advantage that threatens US leadership [7][8]. Overall, the controls slow China's trajectory but do not derail it, as domestic capabilities and alternative strategies continue to drive growth, making the AI race a strategic battle for dominance [3].